Friday, 6 January 2017

FX Market Guru James Gillingham at FX World Reveals Tips to Meet Multi-Million Dollar Sales Targets

James Gillingham with unrivaled knowledge and aptitude is a UK-based all-around expert in the investment field. He has worked for leading global financial institutions, including International Asset Management, a Mayfair based fund of funds, and Close Brothers, a City of London based Investment Bank. Known by his colleagues for his passion, drive and determination, James Gillingham is an international innovator and businessman whose work has taken him across continents.
James Gillingham Fx World

James Gillingham Fx World

James Gillingham Fx World

James Gillingham at Fx World, FX Market and asset management expert, reveals insights on succeeding in the highly competitive foreign exchange market. He discusses career highlights and offers mentoring for newcomers.
James Gillingham, a pioneer in the FX and CFD markets, has recently conducted a training workshop to provide insights on how to succeed amidst the cut-throat and fierce competition existing within the foreign exchange market of the UK. In the workshop, attended by a combination of industry experts and aspirants, James Gillingham revealed proven strategies and valuable tips from his accomplished career as an FX Market and international asset management consultant.
As part of his personal CSR initiative, Gillingham mentors newcomers that aspire to make it big in the financial sector. With a decade-long career in business development and consultative sales, Gillingham was able to manage a dynamic track record of meeting multi-million dollar sales targets in markets, such as Europe, Asia and the Middle East. He now wants to use his bank of knowledge and insights to benefit desirous apprentices and trainees in his attempt to give back to society.
Rise to Success
James Gillingham is best known for accomplishing two great feats. He developed 4 extra low latency trading algorithms during his career at Jagero Ltd. His work was responsible for increasing bottom line revenue of the company by 35%, while creating an essentially paperless office, thanks to the software and CRM integration that occurred as part of the project.
“The key to success in today’s world is through innovation and dedication alone,” states James Gillingham. “It is your responsibility as a manager or aspiring leader to develop people and ideas that will modernize the way your workplace functions. With innovative products and sustainable processes, success becomes only a matter of time.”
At FX World Managed Account, James Gillingham developed a pioneering rebate managed account, employing some of the world’s leading FX traders in his dealing room. These talented and proficient individuals were headhunted from the largest names in the international banking industry. Gillingham has the honor of being the first employee of the company and then gaining FCA regulation (FRN: 675061) to solidify his attributes further.

Wednesday, 4 January 2017

Forex - Dollar index retreats as Fed minutes eyed - The dollar retreated from 14-year highs against a currency basket on Wednesday as investors waited minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December meeting, when it hiked interest rates for the first time in a year.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was down 0.68% to 102.54.
The index hit highs of 103.81 on Tuesday, the most since December 2002, after upbeat U.S factory data fed into expectations for a faster rate of policy tightening from the Fed this year.
The U.S. central bank is to publish the minutes of its December meeting at 14.00 ET and analysts will be examining them for any indications that officials are more upbeat on growth than the quarterly economic projections released following the meeting showed.
Analysts will also be looking for what Fed officials said about potential fiscal policy changes under the incoming Trump administration and how they may react to measures that could spur growth and inflation.
Traders were looking ahead to Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for December for indications on solid growth in the labor market which could enable the Fed to keep pushing up interest rates.
Higher rates typically boost the dollar by making dollar assets more attractive to yield-seeking investors.
The dollar was lower against the yen, with USD/JPY down 0.39% to 117.28, off Tuesday’s three-week highs of 118.6.
Japanese government spokesman Yoshihide Suga said Wednesday that Tokyo should closely monitor the market to spot any speculative or one-sided moves in the yen, but did not comment on the currency’s current levels.
The euro gained ground, with EUR/USD climbing 0.77% to 1.0485, supported by reports showing that business activity in the euro area rose at the fastest pace in more than five years and inflation in the bloc climbed to the highest in over three years.
The single currency touched lows of 1.0341 on Tuesday, the weakest level since December 2002.
Sterling also moved higher, with GBP/USD rising 0.47% to 1.2297, recovering from a two-month low of 1.2197 struck overnight.
The pound was buoyed by data showing the U.K. construction sector enjoyed solid growth in December and another report showing that consumer credit notched up its fastest monthly increase since March 2005 in November.

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Ex-Barclays trader pleads guilty in U.S. in forex probe

A former Barclays Plc (BARC.L) trader pleaded guilty on Wednesday to U.S. charges arising from a global investigation into the manipulation of foreign-exchange prices at major banks, the U.S. Department of Justice said.

Jason Katz, a former Barclays trader who later worked at BNP Paribas SA (BNPP.PA), pleaded guilty in Manhattan federal court to participating in a price-fixing conspiracy, becoming the first person to admit criminal wrongdoing in the probe.
Katz's plea came after Barclays and three other banks last year pleaded guilty to conspiring to manipulate currency prices. Barclays agreed to pay $2.4 billion to resolve related U.S. and UK probes.
Prosecutors said that from January 2007 until July 2013, Katz, while working at three different financial firms, conspired with traders at other firms to fix prices in Central and Eastern European, Middle Eastern and African currencies.
"These conspirators engaged in blatant collusion and succeeded in manipulating exchange rates for multiple currencies to their advantage," Deputy Assistant Attorney General Brent Snyder said in a statement.
As part of his plea deal, Katz agreed to cooperate with the Justice Department in its ongoing investigation. He also reached an agreement announced by the Federal Reserve Board that would ban him from the banking industry.
Following a court hearing, Katz was released on a $150,000 bond. His lawyer did not respond to requests for comment.
According to regulatory filings and his LinkedIn profile, Katz joined Barclays in July 2010 from Standard Bank, and worked in its New York offices until September 2011, when he join BNP Paribas as director of emerging markets foreign exchange trading.
Katz left BNP in July 2013, the Federal Reserve said, and joined Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd (ANZ.AX), according to his LinkedIn profile.
He is the third person to face U.S. criminal charges in connection with the foreign-exchange probe.
In July, an HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA.L) executive, Mark Johnson, was arrested and charged along with a former executive for participating in a fraudulent scheme involving a $3.5 billion currency transaction. Johnson has pleaded not guilty.
Beyond Barclays, the other banks that pleaded guilty in May 2015 in the foreign-exchange probe included a unit of Citigroup Inc (C.N), JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) and the Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc (RBS.L).
A fifth bank, UBS Group AG (UBSG.S), pleaded guilty to manipulating benchmark interest rates. All five banks are scheduled to be sentenced on Thursday in a federal court in Connecticut.
The case is U.S. v. Katz, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York, No. 17-cr-003.

Sunday, 25 December 2016

Is the stock market ignoring one of the most important risks of 2017?

MOBILE, AL - DECEMBER 17: President-elect Donald Trump speaks during a thank you rally in Ladd-Peebles Stadium on December 17, 2016 in Mobile, Alabama. President-elect Trump has been visiting several states that he won, to thank people for their support during the U.S. election. (Photo by Mark Wallheiser/Getty Images)

In an increasingly tense world, why is Wall Street looking so sanguine?
From a geopolitical perspective, 2016 has been the most volatile year in recent history, with historic elections in Britain, Italy, and the U.S. The election of Donald Trump as U.S. president has ratcheted up anxieties, with the real-estate mogul recently saying that he planned to “greatly strengthen and expand” the country’s nuclear capability, raising the specter of a Cold War-era style arms race.

However, observers may be hard pressed to discern any signs of the swiftly shifting political landscape in the equity markets. After a rocky start, trading this year was marked by a rally that has taken major indexes to repeated records, but despite the tilt higher Wall Street has mostly been marked by a historic level of quiescence.

The CBOE Volatility index VIX, +0.09% a measure of investor anxiety, recently fell to its lowest level since August 2015. According to LPL Financial, the average level for the “fear index” in 2016 was below 16, the fifth straight year it has averaged below 20, the level considered its long-term average. Readings below 12 suggests that the market isn’t betting on any sharp market swings.

Despite that, investors are nearly unanimous that the events of the year have injected huge amounts of uncertainty into the economy. It is unknown what the fallout will be to the U.K.’s vote to exit from out of the European Union, known as Brexit, or the populist movements sweeping Europe. President-elect Donald Trump remains a wild card, as his tweets hint at potentially massive changes to U.S. policy on China, in addition to calling out companies and Wall Street executives.

“The world economy and markets have embarked on a journey into the unknown,” researchers at Pimco wrote in a Dec. 15 note. The firm didn’t adjust its outlook for 2017, but wrote that “our confidence in any particular scenario is low. The reason: the world has now fully arrived in the radically uncertain, ‘stable but not secure’ predicament.”

The most commonly invoked aphorism on Wall Street is “markets hate uncertainty.” So why hasn’t “a journey into the unknown” devolved into wild price swings? Some analysts believe that we might get that at some point—but not yet.

Perhaps the biggest question mark among geopolitical issue involves Russia. On Monday, the Russian ambassador to Turkey was assassinated by a Turkish police officer, raising tensions that had already been elevated due to the country’s alleged hacking during the U.S. campaign; Moscow has been charged with stealing and leaking emails in an effort to interfere with the election in favor of Trump.

While top Senate Republicans have joined Democrats in calling for investigations into the issue, Trump has dismissed intelligence assessments of the hack, raising questions about the kind of response will be made by the government, if any.

“These are really big wild cards. You hear guys like [Sen. Majority Leader Mitch] McConnell saying that no matter what Russia did, they’re not our friend. And then Trump comes out to say he’s a fan of Putin—that’s a huge chasm, and we don’t know what side anyone is on,” said Michael Mullaney, director of global market research at Boston Partners, which manages $89 billion.

U.S. intelligence and Homeland security accused Russia of directing a series of cyberattacks to influence the outcome of the presidential election.

“If the election was tampered with, then there should be some kind of retaliation, which would fly in the face of both Trump and Tillerson, who is also very friendly with Putin. Those are significant curveballs, and all they do is add more uncertainty to the market,” said Mullaney.

Mullaney was referring to Rex Tillerson, the chief executive officer of Exxon Mobil Corp. XOM, -0.18% who was recently named Trump’s secretary of state and has had business dealings with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Despite the uncertainty, equities have risen steadily since the election, with investors betting that the broad outlines of Trump’s expected economic policy proposals—which include massive corporate tax cuts, deregulation, and heavy infrastructure spending—will accelerate economic growth and spur inflation.
“Markets have factored in the prospect of lower taxes. That’s the numerical rationale for these gains; it’s not just euphoria about a business-oriented president,” said Kim Forrest, senior equity research analyst at Fort Pitt Capital Group. “We’re not that goofy, overall,” she said of market analysts.

Read: Wall Street’s Trump optimism comes with heavy dose of uncertainty
Trump has released few details about the policies he will pursue, making it difficult to evaluate their impact on the economy or corporate growth. Thus far, however, corporate optimism doesn’t seem to match the expectations conveyed by Wall Street’s rapid rise.

Nick Colas, chief market strategist at the ConvergEx Group, recently noted that 2017 revenue growth estimates for Dow components had fallen to 4.5% from the 4.8% that had been forecast before the election.
“If history is any guide, they will be trimming it further,” he wrote of company analysts in a newsletter. “Moreover, our first look at 2018 revenue [comparisons] for the Dow shows analysts expect top line growth to decelerate further, to just 3.7% versus 2017.”

Don’t miss: Stocks get Trump bounce, but not the real economy
Even if fundamentals don’t show signs of weakening, however, the prospect of elevated tension with military rivals like Russia, or with major trading partners like China or Mexico—both of which Trump has threatened to levy tariffs on—could be enough to bring markets down.

“If you look at headlines about our relationship with China getting choppy, or the degree to which we may become buddies with Russia, or about how Europe manages itself in this political age, then it’s easy to see why we expect volatility will come back into this market,” said Bill Belden, managing director at Guggenheim.

“The current lack of concern seems to be that the dust will settle in a way that’s not too dissimilar from what we have now, but even if that’s true, the path to the dust settling is uncertain.”

Global Economy Week Ahead: Kuroda Speech, Japan CPI, U.S. Pending Home Sales

Figures from the ECB are expected to show a continued modest rise in bank lending

A spate of data out of Japan, after a recent upbeat economic assessment by the country’s central bank, highlights this week’s calendar. Also, a peek at home sales in the U.S. for November will offer early clues on how the rise in interest rates is affecting the  housing market and U.S. economy

Morgan Stanley sees EUR/USD trading at $0.97 by end 2017

Currency strategist James Lord finds the euro susceptible to weakness and sterling cheap long-term

Tuesday, 20 December 2016

Head And Shoulders Could Spell Major Losses For The Swissy

Key Points:
  • Near-term slip looking highly likely due to double top formation.
  • Overarching Head and Shoulders pattern could cause substantial losses for the pair.
  • Confirmation of the pattern still needed moving forward.
The Swissy has reached a critical high point in the past few sessions which could be intimating that a reversal is now on the cards. Furthermore, the medium- to long-term implications of this reversal could result in some serious losses for the pair if the nascent head and shoulders pattern crystallises in the coming weeks.

Firstly, the evidence for why we might expect the recently bullish pair to make a relatively severe plunge lower is worthy of closer examination. As has already been mentioned, the post-election/post-rate hike surge in USD sentiment has recently come to somewhat of an impasse as the USDCHF has moved to challenge the 1.0326 level. This level represents a long-term high for the pair and, as a result, resistance has proven to be quite robust. In addition to the long-term zone of resistance, this spate of bullishness has pushed stochastics into overbought territory which will militate against any additional rallies.

However, zooming into the H4 timeframe reveals another underlying chart pattern which could also signal the high likelihood of a near-term tumble. Specifically, the “head” of the head and shoulders pattern is actually forming a bit of a double top structure which would certainly suggest that we could have a slip back to the neckline in the next few sessions. What’s more, this neckline is expected to hold firm as the 100 day EMA will be providing some dynamic support as will the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement.

After making this slide lower, the subsequent rally will be the deciding factor in confirming the existence of the overarching head and shoulders pattern. The move to form the right shoulder will need to be relatively clear as the implied downsides of the depicted structure are quite contrary to the recent fundamental bias. However, if the pair does move below the neckline after forming the second shoulder, it is likely that the daily moving averages will be in a highly bearish configuration which could signal that the USD’s resurgence has finally ended.

Ultimately, we still have some way to go before we can say for sure if this is a true head and shoulders pattern. As mentioned, the integrity of the neckline and the subsequent rally are vital in the confirmation of the structure which is why these will be the things to monitor moving forward. Furthermore, fundamentals are likely to remain highly disruptive as Trump’s presidency looms nearer and these should be watched especially intently as the pair moves back towards parity.